I have a number of people looking for answers to the New Zealand economy and where it is headed, so I will endeavour to provide my best economic forecast as information comes to hand.

8/8/11

Time For A Change Of Government?

Could this be a slight falter in the New Zealand economic recovery? Could it even be the double dip recession that we were told would not come?

It seems to me that either our Government lied to us - perhaps hoping that this economic stumble would not come until after the forth coming election (maybe hoping we would be that distracted by the rugby world cup that we would not notice).

If it wasn't a lie then it is even more serious. It means that the people running our country are that incompetent they couldn't see what was coming.

Which ever instance is true I say it is time the current Government are retired. The current "opposition" are no better and in my opinion not an option to take over the running of our country. The Labour party has already proved they can't manage a country in some of the most prosperous years in recent history, so putting them in place during a recession with the same incompetent faces is economic suicide. I am looking toward some of the new faces who haven't got decades of baggage to bring to the table to lead us in a saine direction. People who know how to run a business profitably.

If I can predict the global economy better than our Government then we definitely have the wrong people in the job.

4/2/11

The Year We Will See The US Bankrupt

If your business has any trade with the United States you will want to be very careful this year. Even if it does not we will undoubtedly feel the effects of the ripples around world.

This year is looking like the year that we will America begin to crumble from within. Not since the Great Depression have we seen internal Governments default on debt. However, right now there are around 11 States verging on bankruptcy.

Public Service staff are being laid off. Assets are being sold off. And bills are up to 6 months in arrears.

Central Government is no better shape so there is unlikely to be a bail out. This is even more assured as they are looking at easing the laws to allow States to default on their debts.

Retirement funds are already bankrupt. Social Security fun is $130 billion in deficit despite last year saying it wouldn't happen until 2016. 

The Recession is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Plan accordingly.

30/12/2010

Double Dip Recession

Has New Zealand come through the recession as politicians claim, or are we yet to experience the worst of it?

The global evidence would suggest we are far from through the recession. The US is in a state of spiraling debt that they can not tax their way out of. Their only option is to devalue their dollar on the global scene and turn around their opulent consumerism.

This will have far reaching effects. For example; China, that is teetering on the brink of a housing bubble burst like no other, can not afford to loose business to the American market at this time.

The EU is also in dire economic condition with several countries either bankrupt or on the verge of bankruptcy in its midst. A burden that the financially affluent countries can not afford to carry at a time when they are in recession themselves.

If the New Zealand Government can see a silver lining on the immediate horizon of this cloud they are privy to better financial information than I. Or they have their head in the sand as usual. Perhaps they are just guilty of spreading propaganda like other communist Governments to keep the population in the dark.

I however, suggest you tread with caution if you are planning business expansion in the near future. We are still adrift in uncertain economic seas. Informed speculators will make lots of money, uninformed speculators will lose a lot of money, and businesses without a solid financial base will continue to go to the wall in 2011.

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